MGFNL Season 2026 - Round 18 Preview

Round Eighteen, the final home and away round, of the MGFNL sees a return to six games of footy, with only one team having the bye, and as luck would have it five of them can shape the finals.

As we have done over the last two weeks rather than discuss the games, the match ups, the players, the coaches and everything else that comes with the analysis of a footy match we will continue to focus on the finals fall out from each game.

So, starting with the easiest of the lot:

Mirboo North v Morwell East

Zero, nothing that happens from this match that impacts the finals.

Yinnar v Thorpy

Yinnar win (likely) and they finish second, securing the double chance and the week off.

Yinnar lose (unlikely) and Fish Creek make up 25% over MDU (unlikely) they finish third and go into sudden death footy for a month.

Yinnar lose (unlikely) and Fish Creek don’t make up 25% over MDU (likely) they finish second, securing the double chance and the week off.

Thorpy win (unlikely) they finish fourth. (note 4^th plays 5^th week one of the finals)

Thorpy lose (likely) and MDU beat Fish Creek (unlikely) they finish fifth. (note 5^th plays 4^th week one of the finals)

Thorpy lose (likely) and Fish Creek beat MDU (likely) they finish fourth. (note 4^th plays 5^th week one of the finals)

Expected outcome is Yinnar win, finish second.

Expected outcome is Thorpy lose and finish fourth.

Tarwin v Boolarra

Tarwin lose (unlikely) it is season over.

Tarwin win (likely) and Hill End lose (v Foster, likely) and MDU lose (v Fish Creek, likely) Tarwin finish fifth if they make up 9% over MDU (possible).

Tarwin win (likely) and Hill End win (v Foster, unlikely) and MDU lose (v Fish Creek, likely) Tarwin finish sixth if they don’t make up 9% over MDU (possible).

Tarwin win (likely) and Hill End lose (v Foster, likely) and MDU win (v Fish Creek, unlikely) Tarwin finish sixth

Tarwin win (likely) and Hill End win (v Foster, unlikely) and MDU win (v Fish Creek, unlikely) Tarwin miss.

Expected outcome is Tarwin win and finish fifth or sixth based on percentage.

Hill End v Foster

Foster win (likely) they finish top.

Foster lose (unlikely) they finish top- unless Yinnar win (likely) and make up 80 percent on the ladder (not guna happen!)

If Hill End lose (likely) but Tarwin (v Boolarra) and Newborough (v Stony Creek) both lose (unlikely!) Hill End stay in the six.

If Hill End win (unlikely) and MDU lose (v Fish Creek, likely) and Tarwin (v Boolarra) and Newborough (v Stony Creek) both lose (unlikely!) Hill End can finish fifth.

If Hill End win (unlikely) and MDU win (v Fish Creek, unlikely) and Tarwin (v Boolarra) and Newborough (v Stony Creek) both lose (unlikely!) Hill End can finish fifth.

Ironically due to their percentage hit last week there is also a world in which Hill End could spring the upset of the season in beating Foster and not make finals if MDU and Newborough both win.

Expected outcome is Foster win, finish top.

Expected outcome is Hill End lose and (sadly) miss finals.

MDU v Fish Creek

Fish Creek win (likely) and Yinnar win (likely) Fish Creek finish third.

Fish Creek win (likely) and Yinnar lose (heavily! unlikely) Fish Creek finish second.

Fish Creek lose (unlikely, all though may rest players if they’ve given up on second spot!!!!) they finish third.

MDU lose (likely) and Hill End win (v Foster, unlikely), Tarwin lose (v Boolarra, unlikely) MDU finish sixth.

MDU lose (likely) and Hill End lose (v Foster, likely), Tarwin win (v Boolarra, likely) MDU finish fifth/sixth based on percentage with Tarwin.

MDU win (unlikely , all though Fish Creek may rest players if they’ve given up on second spot!!!!) and Thorpy lose (likely) MDU finish fifth. (note 5^th plays 4^th week one of the finals)

MDU win (unlikely , all though Fish Creek may rest players if they’ve given up on second spot!!!!) and Thorpy win (unlikely) MDU finish sixth. (note 5^th plays 4^th week one of the finals)

Expected outcome is Fish Creek win and finish third.

Expected outcome is MDU lose and finish fifth or sixth based on percentage.

Newborough v Stony Creek

Newborough win (likely) and Hill End lose (v Foster, likely) and Tarwin lose (v Boolarra, unlikely) Newborough finish sixth.

Newborough win (likely) and Hill End win (v Foster, unlikely) and Tarwin lose (v Boolarra, unlikely) Newborough miss.

Newborough win (likely) and Hill End lose (v Foster, likely) and Tarwin win (v Boolarra, likely) Newborough miss.

Newborough lose (unlikely) they miss.

Expected outcome is Newborough win but so to do Tarwin so Newborough miss.

The wash-up:

So, if we agree that things that are “likely” will happen and things that are “unlikely” won’t happen I think the top six comes in looking something like this:

Foster, Yinnar, Fish Creek, Thorpy, Tarwin/MDU*

*The percentage gap here, presently at nine, will possibly swap if Tarwin and Fish Creek both win well. And rest assured there is a significant benefit to finishing 5^th and avoiding Fish Creek in week one of the finals.