MGFNL Season 2026 - Round 17 Preview

Measuring success in football is always an interesting thing. If we say that the only measure of success is a Premiership, then only one team can be considered successful each season. And that seems absurd to me. Sides that struggle to recruit, sides that struggle to spend their allotted salary cap, sides that are geographically isolated might argue making finals is a success. Heck they might even argue that simply fielding teams is a success.

So how do we gauge success? I will leave that to others to answer but I will tell you this; when it comes to writing about the footy, I can tell you exactly how it is measured- when no one complains you have success!

If we assume making finals is success and no one complaining about last week’s article is also considered success, why not combine the two for this week’s article and focus on who plays who in the coming two weeks and who can and cannot (will or will not?) play finals this year. 

Apologies to the teams ninth and below, sadly you are going to have to sit this one out.

Foster:

Top of the ladder, a game and a large chunk of percentage clear.

Have the bye this week (4 points) and close out the season with Hill End.

With week one of the finals a rest week and a bye this week they will likely go in full strength in Round 18 and even with Hill End potentially playing for their season it is impossible to not see them win given last time these two sides played the Tigers got up by 143 points.

Cannot miss top spot, simples.

Yinnar:

Second on the ladder. A game and percentage clear of Fish Creek in third. The only team to beat Foster.

Have Hill End this week and finish their home and away season with Thorpy.

Winning one of their last two will see percentage come into play for the Pies if Fish Creek (a bye and four points this week) beat MDU in Round Eighteen.

Winning both of their last two will see Yinnar finish second and earn a week off, which also comes with the double chance. 

Highly likely second pot, almost morals in fact. Worst case scenario is third. Destiny in their own hands.

Fish Creek:

Third on the ladder. A game and percentage behind Yinnar (and the week off and double chance) and two games and percentage clear of fourth.

Finish their season off with a bye (4 points but crucially no percentage!) and then a seemingly out of form MDU.

Rolled MDU by only twenty points when they last met.

Almost certain to finish third. Destiny in Yinnar’s hands.

Thorpdale:

Fourth on the ladder two points ahead of Hill End, four points ahead of MDU but with an inferior percentage to MDU. They have a six-point buffer back to Newborough and are eight points clear of Tarwin with a better percentage.

Thorpy finish their season with Newborough and Yinnar. Interestingly they did lose to both of these sides earlier in the season.

Arguably go in as favourites over Newborough but would not want to be reliant on rolling Yinnar, who beat them by fifty-two points (thirty-five scoring shots to thirteen!) in late May.

Classic eight-point game this week!

Destiny in their own hands.

Could finish anywhere from fourth to missing finals.

Got them making it, personally.

Hill End:

Currently fifth on the ladder two points behind fourth and six in front of Tarwin back in eighth. Their percentage is not great but courtesy of a draw with Newborough the only percentage they need to beat is that of the Doggies, over whom they have a seven percent advantage, at present.

And that “at present” is key here as Hill End have the hardest run home of any side in the finals mix. They have second placed Yinnar this week and top placed Foster in Round Eighteen. And with Foster having the bye this week and being assured of week one off in the finals you can rest assured the Tigers will be at full strength for their last game of the home and away season.

Destiny in their own hands however need to turn around a forty-nine-point loss to Yinnar and/or a143 point loss to Foster.

Sadly, likely to miss I feel.

MDU:

Currently sit in sixth spot but with the best percentage of any side outside the top three. They are two points clear of Newborough and four points and percentage ahead of Tarwin.

MDU’s last two games commence with a road trip to Boolarra, where they’d go in favourites, and a home clash against Fish Creek where they’d not go in as favourites.

If we agree Hill End lose both of their last two matches and MDU can roll Boolarra and not take too big of a hit to their percentage against Fish Creek they go past the Rovers and likely qualify for the post season.

If Fish Creek however accept their fate as finishing third on the Thursday night before Round Eighteen, understanding they will need to win four knock-out finals in a row to win the flag, MDU could benefit from a few Kangaroos having a spell in the last home and away match. 

Ironically if they were to finish sixth, they’d most likely have back to back clashes with Fishy.

Sixth in a nail biter coming down to percentage. 

Newborough:

The Dogs sit outside the top six, in seventh spot, and have the worst percentage of all contenders. Sounds negative right?

Well, the simple facts are if they beat Thorpy this week they get Stony Creek in the last round. If the Dogs happen to go bang bang to finish the home and away season they should actually sniff out a finals berth!

Well, that’s on the assumption that Hill End drop both of their last two games and MDU do not beat Fish Creek. It is worth noting all those results would be considered the likely outcomes based on the previous five months of football.

Exciting times for the tricolours, well at least until the final siren this week as if they lose to Thorpy they’d need a miracle.

FWIW, I think Thorpy have them this week and the woofers miss the post season.

Tarwin:

Like their namesake, the Shark, Tarwin are lying in wait and a genuine sneaky chance to leap from eight into the finals mix thanks to a late season soft draw. Since playing Foster in Round Eleven Tarwin have played just two other sides in the finals mix. And even then they got lucky playing Fish Creek on a day where scoring was nigh on impossible, potentially saving their percentage from a hammering.

What there was no luck about though was their win over Hill End. They led all day did the Sharks and won by fifty odd points.

Their run home sees them tackle bottom placed Toora and a Boolarra side that has been out of contention for some time. Both games are at home too.

So, with a modest percentage and two wins to finish the season we can get Tarwin to forty-four points which would (most likely) see them equal on points with MDU and in front of Hill End and Newborough.

Break out the calculators come Round Eighteen!! If Fishy do a number on MDU (possible) and Tarwin cash in over Toora this week (also possible) the percentage between MDU and Tarwin might well be crucial in deciding who does and does not make it.

So, there you have the MGFNL run to the finals.

And who knows one upset this week and it will be back to the drawing board for the final round in a week’s time!